This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee which is going to be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools for this particular occasion but there is still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a wonderful high prize are always my favorite competitions to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in games. Here are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is almost always the best fight to get into cash games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can pile the most important event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is the must play of the two. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score highly and based on Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he possess a high ground, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card too. That is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he should score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I love the value we’re getting there, and I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to be among the most well-known underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not only would he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I believe if he can win this battle he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I think he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style I do not see him getting more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your chances at winning a GPP as the other men in that $9k stove likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each fight, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the previous 7 months!)
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