There is a lot of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I’ll be going thicker than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than normal. Here is the first time we have seen a $30k top prize so I think it’s well worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from this fight against Brian Ortega, thus we’re down to 11 fights and we ought to see a lot of ties with this card together with all the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the area. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in money games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he must be so highly owned it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe think about preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the cash game play of the week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I just chose Paul Felder as my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all don’t care about possession. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not hurt your lineup because only 10% of lineups did not have him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the field that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of the mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to put you at a far better place of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it really shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 decades before, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for most the fight and that will give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken down I believe he is going to be able to get back up if he isn’t able to acquire a entry of his very own. In case Pettis can win a determination then I think he will pay off his DK cost and will be a fantastic underdog to use so it is possible to save salary on your lineups. I may even find this battle ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying that large price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I need at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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