After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile horizontal track in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 endings dating back to last year, but both motorists are going to take a backseat to the current dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.
Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and won at the course last season. This weekend, when Harvick were to triumph, he would join an elite team, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races in a single track; linking Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.
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In three of the previous four Phoenix races, Busch has headed 359 laps, including 117 in his win throughout last year’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of the track.
Phoenix’s monitor is comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and it is no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at those racks. Busch has won the last two races in Richmond and the fall race at New Hampshire of 2017. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races at Richmond.
But unlike in those previous races, all drivers will use a new automobile setup implemented by NASCAR, another from what we watched the last two weeks in Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year, teams will use a spacer — and no ducts — for the very first time. They will use a engine in Phoenix instead of their 550-horsepower engine at Vegas. NASCAR hopes to see a well-handling car using a faster response time around the throttle. The new bundle could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the area.
So far in 2 races with NASCAR rules bundle, Ford has five stage wins and has led 65 percent of the laps. Harvick’s teammate, ford driver Aric Almirola, will be a sleeper motorist. He was third at New Hampshire’s similar layout final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth in last year’s fall race in Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and he is liked by us in a matchup with Kyle Larson in -110.
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Odds to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix
Odds provided by Westgate LV SuperBook
Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1
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